Sault Climate hub - Climate change rally speech

By Pedro M. Antunes, September, 2023

Climate change is one of the most significant challenges that we will continue to face for the rest of our lives. Seeing interested and engaged youth, who are speaking here today, gives me hope for the future.

I am a research scientist. This means that I get paid to observe the world around us, ask questions, and then strive for answers through data collection and analysis. I use statistics, which give us the power to draw conclusions from the data with a relatively small probability of being wrong. Science is humble; a conclusion can always be challenged. But when again and again we reach similar conclusions, it is highly unlikely we may be wrong. There’s a misunderstanding about what constitutes a 'fact' in science. In fact, scientists don’t really use the word 'fact'. If you take a closer look at the reports by the International Panel on Climate Change, you won’t see the word 'fact' anywhere. Instead, you’ll see likelihoods of climate change consequences such as average temperature increases under certain scenarios (for example, 'business as usual'). So, as a scientist, my role is clear: draw conclusions supported by data—no political agenda. Maybe because of this, for far too long, scientists have shied away from public events like this; to avoid the politics, polarization in society or the misunderstanding or manipulation of scientific results. But I think that's a mistake. There is value in showing up to talk about climate change science.

In my daily work, I investigate the impacts of global change factors on plants and soils. Plants and soils, together with water, are essential to support life. On climate change, my focus is on biology, and, more specifically, on studying the effects of factors like temperature, precipitation, and CO2 on species interactions.

We know a great deal about the consequences of climate change. We know there are shifts in species distributions, altered species phenology (for example, when trees leaf out or plants produce flowers), increased risk of species extinctions, ocean acidification, and increased frequency of extreme events (e.g., abnormally intense fires), to name a few. But a big and concerning problem is that there's also a lot that we don't know. For example, just think that we have only described a tiny number of microbes relative to what we think may exist. We have described around 150,000 species of fungi, but there are estimates that over 5 million may be out there. What roles do they all play? In each ecosystem, how many species and ecosystem functions do we lose if some fungi are compromised? When species are lost, they’re lost. So, as we alter our climate, we lack a full understanding of the risks involved, and there’s no planet B. I’m going to give a specific example of something we work with. With higher CO2 in the atmosphere and higher temperatures (provided there's sufficient water), plants can grow faster. But they also require a different amount of resources. If a plant is making more sugars on its leaves because there’s more CO2 and it’s hotter, then it will require more nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus and water from the soil. What does this mean for the surrounding plants and all the organisms that directly or indirectly depend on that plant? The change in growth alone can produce cascading effects on the species that depend on these plants; and identifying which species benefit and which ones may suffer under changing conditions is very difficult to predict. What I’m trying to say is that we easily end up in uncharted territory, like a boat adrift in the ocean. The current pace of climate change is unparalleled in the history of present human civilization, and this puts us at risk of more frequent diseases and greater food insecurity.

There is still a chance that we can keep the average global temperature from rising above 1.5 to 2.0 degrees Celsius, but the IPCC's climate scenarios show us that we must swiftly transition our economy to achieve this. So, to conclude, I think it’s important to recognize there are numerous climate change solutions available in environmental, economic, and political domains. First, frantically stressing out and letting climate change depress us is not helpful. Profound changes take time. We should recognize and celebrate the positive things. Look at how Sault Ste. Marie continues to change in positive directions with every passing year. There are plans for point and non-point source air quality emissions to improve, there’s more active transportation infrastructure for commuting and recreation, the Ste. Mary’s River is a healthier ecosystem today than it was decades ago. But, as we all know, there’s much left to be done… What else can we do as citizens? Acknowledge the reality of climate change and understand what’s at stake if we let things get out of control (destruction, political and economic unrest, hunger, disease, and death); Reduce carbon emissions: within our means, we can strive to use energy-efficient appliances, reduce waste, conserve water, use active transportation, eat healthier diets. These choices tangibly select for green policies and technologies. Finally, we must do exactly what we’re doing at this rally. Advocate for change in a respectful and meaningful way and we must seek leaders and organizations who possess knowledge about evidence-based climate change solutions and are truly committed to implementing them.